YOUR AUGUST MARKET SIGNAL

THE MARKET IS MOVING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. VALUATION WORKFLOWS NEED TO KEEP UP.

Mortgage rates have eased slightly from recent highs, but the latest housing data does not point to one simple market direction. Purchase activity, refinance demand, and new construction are responding differently. For lenders and valuation teams, the practical takeaway is clear: capacity and workflow decisions need to account for the mix of work—not just the headline rate.

08

This month

Plan for the mix—not just the rate.

Applications, construction, property type, and loan purpose are sending different signals.

At a glance

Six signals that frame this month’s valuation workflow decisions.

Negative

−0.4%

Total mortgage applications

Week ending August 14, 2026

Negative

−2%

Purchase applications

Week over week; 3% lower than the same week last year

Positive

+2%

Refinance applications

Week over week; still 18% below the same week one year earlier

Neutral

41.9%

Refinance share of applications

Share of total applications

Neutral

$282,200

Average refinance loan size

Lowest level since June 2025

Positive

+5.0%

July building permits

Month over month; starts −12.4%, completions −9.1%

Text + Comparison

Market Analysis

01

Market Analysis

Rates are easing at the margin—but affordability is still shaping behavior

Freddie Mac and HousingWire measure rates differently. Both matter—and neither tells the whole story alone.

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.65% on August 20, down from 6.67% the week before. That is a modest improvement, but it remains a rate environment where small changes can affect borrower decisions and monthly payment calculations.

HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed a different measure: rates based on locked loans across borrower credit profiles. HousingWire explains that its rate data is modeled from real-time locked-rate activity through Polly, while Freddie Mac’s PMMS is based on loan applications submitted by lenders. Those measures are useful for different reasons, but they should not be treated as interchangeable.

The practical point is not to choose one rate series as “the answer.” It is to understand what each measure is telling you. Application-based rates help show the conditions borrowers are encountering when they apply. Locked-loan data can provide a view of pricing activity across loans that have moved further into the process. Together, they reinforce a broader reality: the market can change without every borrower, property, or loan type responding the same way.

Freddie Mac PMMS

6.65%

Average 30-year fixed rate on August 20

HousingWire

Locked-loan rate context

Different methodology and use case

Freddie Mac PMMS

6.65%

Average 30-year fixed rate on August 20

HousingWire

Locked-loan rate context

Different methodology and use case

Freddie Mac PMMS archive

6.65%

Average 30-year fixed rate on August 20

Locked-loan rate context

Different methodology and use case

Text + Three Data Points

Market Analysis

02

Market Analysis

Application activity is active, but selective

Purchase and refinance are moving differently—so the pipeline mix matters more than the headline total.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that total mortgage applications decreased 0.4% for the week ending August 14. Purchase applications declined 2% from the prior week and were 3% lower than the same week last year. Refinance applications increased 2% week over week, but remained 18% below the prior-year period. The average refinance loan size also fell to $282,200, the lowest level since June 2025.

That combination matters. A modest increase in refinance activity does not necessarily mean a broad refinance wave. A small decline in purchase applications does not mean every market or property type is slowing equally. It means the pipeline is being shaped by borrower economics, loan purpose, credit profile, property characteristics, and local inventory.

For operations teams, this is where a national average becomes less useful than an informed view of the actual order mix. Capacity planning should account for the types of files entering the pipeline, not just the number of applications reported nationally.

Total applications

−0.4%

Week ending August 14, 2026

Purchase

−2%

Week over week; 3% below last year

Refinance

+2%

Week over week; 18% below last year

Refinance share

41.9%

Share of total applications

Average refinance loan

$282,200

Lowest level since June 2025

Total applications

−0.4%

Week ending August 14, 2026

Purchase

−2%

Week over week; 3% below last year

MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, August 19, 2026

Refinance

+2%

Week over week; 18% below last year

−0.4%

Week ending August 14, 2026

−2%

Week over week; 3% below last year

+2%

Week over week; 18% below last year

41.9%

Share of total applications

Text + Pipeline

Market Analysis

03

Market Analysis

New construction adds another layer to the signal

Permits, starts, and completions are moving at different speeds—and that changes valuation needs.

The July construction data tells a similarly mixed story. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that privately owned housing units authorized by building permits rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.443 million, up 5.0% from the revised June rate. Single-family authorizations rose 2.5%. At the same time, housing starts fell 12.4% month over month and housing completions fell 9.1%.

Permits, starts, and completions describe different points in the construction pipeline. When they move at different speeds, the valuation needs can become more varied as well. A lender working with a new-construction file may need a different process, timeline, property-data approach, or level of coordination than a lender working with a standard purchase or refinance assignment.

That is why new construction should not be treated as a small variation of the standard appraisal workflow. The assignment may involve plans, specifications, partially completed improvements, changing market conditions, or coordination across multiple parties. The more complex the file, the more valuable clear scope, dependable communication, and a valuation partner with the right coverage become.

Permits

+5.0%

Seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.443 million; single-family authorizations +2.5%

Starts

−12.4%

Month over month decline in housing starts

Completions

−9.1%

Month over month decline in housing completions

Permits

+5.0%

Seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.443 million; single-family authorizations +2.5%

Starts

−12.4%

Month over month decline in housing starts

U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly New Residential Construction, July 2026

Completions

−9.1%

Month over month decline in housing completions

+5.0%

Seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.443 million; single-family authorizations +2.5%

−12.4%

Month over month decline in housing starts

−9.1%

Month over month decline in housing completions

Three Priorities

Lenders and Operations

04

Lenders + Operations

What this means for lenders and operations teams

Capacity and workflow decisions need to account for the mix of work—not just the headline rate.

National application data is useful for context, but operational decisions should be informed by the actual mix of purchase, refinance, new-construction, government, jumbo, and alternative-valuation work entering the pipeline.

Not every property or loan requires the same valuation process. Fannie Mae identifies multiple valuation paths, including value acceptance, value acceptance with property data, and hybrid appraisal test cases. The right question is not “How do we use fewer appraisals?” It is “Which valuation approach produces the right level of confidence and information for this file?”

When pipeline mix changes, communication can become a larger source of friction than capacity itself. Clear order requirements, transparent status updates, and an escalation path help teams manage exceptions before they become avoidable delays.

Nationwide supports lenders through appraisal management, alternative valuations, broker price opinions, commercial valuations, new-construction services, and turn-time visibility.

01

Plan for the composition of the pipeline

National averages are context. Plan around the actual mix of purchase, refinance, new-construction, government, jumbo, and alternative-valuation work.

02

Match the valuation path to the file

Fannie Mae identifies multiple paths—including value acceptance, value acceptance with property data, and hybrid appraisal test cases. Match the path to the file.

03

Protect communication and turn times

Clear order requirements, transparent status updates, and an escalation path help manage exceptions before they become delays.

01

Plan for the composition of the pipeline

National averages are context. Plan around the actual mix of purchase, refinance, new-construction, government, jumbo, and alternative-valuation work.

02

Match the valuation path to the file

Fannie Mae identifies multiple paths—including value acceptance, value acceptance with property data, and hybrid appraisal test cases. Match the path to the file.

Fannie Mae valuation test cases

03

Protect communication and turn times

Clear order requirements, transparent status updates, and an escalation path help manage exceptions before they become delays.

Plan for the composition of the pipeline

National averages are context. Plan around the actual mix of purchase, refinance, new-construction, government, jumbo, and alternative-valuation work.

Match the valuation path to the file

Fannie Mae identifies multiple paths—including value acceptance, value acceptance with property data, and hybrid appraisal test cases. Match the path to the file.

Protect communication and turn times

Clear order requirements, transparent status updates, and an escalation path help manage exceptions before they become delays.

Checklist + Resource

Appraisers and Valuation

05

Appraisers + Valuation

What this means for appraisers and valuation professionals

Assignment mix is shifting. Clarity on scope, property characteristics, communication, and standards matters more than ever.

The same market mix creates a more varied assignment environment for appraisers and valuation professionals. Property type, loan purpose, scope, and data requirements may differ significantly from one order to the next.

That makes clarity especially important. The industry is also moving toward more structured appraisal data. Nationwide’s updated UAD 3.6 Mission Control resource explains the shift toward dynamic reporting, expanded property data, and standardized validation, and provides a way for partners to submit questions directly to the team.

Checklist

Confirm the assignment scope and intended use

Confirm intended use before work begins.

Checklist

Identify the property characteristics that require additional support or explanation

Flag characteristics that need additional support.

Checklist

Keep communication clear when conditions, access, or data availability affect timing

Escalate early when timing is affected.

Checklist

Use the available tools and standards to produce complete, defensible work

Lean on available tools and standards.

Checklist

Confirm the assignment scope and intended use

Confirm intended use before work begins.

Checklist

Identify the property characteristics that require additional support or explanation

Flag characteristics that need additional support.

Nationwide UAD 3.6 Mission Control

Checklist

Keep communication clear when conditions, access, or data availability affect timing

Escalate early when timing is affected.

Confirm the assignment scope and intended use

Confirm intended use before work begins.

Identify the property characteristics that require additional support or explanation

Flag characteristics that need additional support.

Keep communication clear when conditions, access, or data availability affect timing

Escalate early when timing is affected.

Use the available tools and standards to produce complete, defensible work

Lean on available tools and standards.

Related resource

UAD 3.6 Mission Control

Nationwide’s updated UAD 3.6 Mission Control resource explains the shift toward dynamic reporting, expanded property data, and standardized validation, and provides a way for partners to submit questions directly to the team.

Visit the Nationwide UAD 3.6 Mission Control resource

Takeaway CTA

Takeaway

06

Closing

The takeaway

Different parts of the market are responding differently at the same time.

The August market signal is not simply that rates moved lower or applications moved higher. It is that different parts of the housing and mortgage system are responding differently at the same time.

For lenders, that means operational flexibility matters. For valuation teams, that means the assignment mix matters. And for both, it means the most useful partner is one that can connect the market context to the right valuation path, the right coverage, and the right communication at the file level.

Next step

Talk with Nationwide about matching your valuation workflow to today’s market

Connect market context to the right valuation path, coverage, and communication at the file level.

Contact Nationwide