Season 3, Episode 14: From The ValuVault: When Prices Rise but Comps Don’t

Prices are moving, but the comps aren’t. If that sounds like your current market, you’re not alone. In fast-moving conditions, closed sales can trail reality by weeks or months. Here’s how appraisers bridge that gap—without guessing.

What’s the issue?

Closed sales (your “comps”) reflect yesterday’s contracts. When demand surges, relying on those unadjusted numbers can undervalue a property. The solution is a time (market-conditions) adjustment applied to comparable sales to reflect market change between their contract/close date and the effective date of the appraisal.

How appraisers support time adjustments

1) Paired sales analysis
Find two very similar homes that sold at different times. The price change—after accounting for differences in features/condition—indicates the appreciation (or depreciation) rate over that period.

2) Market trend data
MLS statistics (median/average sale price, price-per-sq-ft trends, list-to-sale ratios, DOM) and neighborhood-level insights help corroborate the paired-sales signal.

3) Consideration of pendings & actives
Pendings and current listings aren’t as strong as closed sales, but they’re valuable context—especially when terms show multiple offers, escalation clauses, or concessions. Appraisers use them to support direction and momentum, not as sole evidence.

4) Clear documentation
Good reports explain why a time adjustment was made, how the rate was derived, and where the data came from. Appraisers don’t guess—they document.

What agents and sellers can do (that actually helps)

• Send offer activity: number of offers, escalation language, final contract date.
• Share concessions and key terms that impacted net price.
• Flag strong pendings most comparable to the subject (with list/contract dates and any material terms).
• Provide access to measurement/condition info so comps really are “like-for-like.”
• Avoid relying on list price alone; closed sales still carry the most weight.

Common pitfalls to avoid

• Treating last quarter’s comps as gospel in an accelerating market.
• Ignoring contract dates—price growth often happens between listing and closing.
• Using pendings as if they were proven sales, without context or verification.
• Skipping the narrative: if the market is moving, the report needs to say so and show the math.

Bottom line

When comps lag, time adjustments connect yesterday’s sales to today’s reality. The combination of paired sales, market stats, and transparent commentary keeps the valuation credible—and the deal on track.

Have a tricky file?

Nationwide Property & Appraisal Services partners with one of the largest nationwide panels of experienced valuation pros. If you’re navigating hot-market pricing or appraisal gaps, we can help.

Contact us: Visit nationwideamc.com and use Contact Us to reach our team.

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